Canceling the Mistral deal will have no influence over India buying 126 Rafale aircrafts from France for 12 billion euros and would open doors for 29 billion euros tenders in Poland and Australia. On the other hand, France would have to refund 700 to 800 million euros already paid by Russia and pay a penalty of 251 million euros in case of non delivery. Do the maths...
The last financial argument against cancelling the Mistral deal is out! For months now, Russian medias and its French supporter the far right party Front National (who recently received a loan from Russian banks ammounting to 9 million euros) have been spreading fear that India might/would reconsider buying 126 Rafale multirole fighter aircraft as France would appear as an unreliable partner. The main goal of this was of course to try to influence French people and have them on the side of the delivery.
India: +12 billion euros
So far, we were suspecting that India just did not really care about what was happening with the Mistral deal as no official declaration had been done and only Russian officials were declaring that India might reconsider the Rafale deal. Russian politicians were just making things up.
Cancelling the Mistral deal will have absolutely no impact on India ordering 126 Rafale aircrafts from France.
Poland: +13 billion euros
The last move of postponing the Mistral deal is reopenning the doors of the Polish arms market to France. All the tenders where France has been shortlisted amount to around 13 billion euros. Here are the details of each tender:
|Missile shield system||5.8 billion euros||Aster-30 (Eurosam, MBDA/Thales)||Patriot (Raytheon, USA)|
|70 multirole-oriented helicopters||2.5 to 3 billion euros||EC725 Caracal (Airbus Helicopters)||S-70 (Sikorsky, USA)|
|3 submarines||1.8 billion euros||Scorpène (DCNS)||U212A (TKMS, Allemagne)|
|6 corvettes||1.3 billion euros||Gowind (DCNS)||Sigma (DAMEN, Hollande)|
|32 attack helicopters||more than 1 billion euros||Tigre EC-665 (Airbus Helicopters)||Apache AH-64 (Boeing, USA)|
Australia: +16 billion euros
Russia: -1 billion euros...
Let us remind you that no jobs are about to be lost so far if the Mistral deal is cancelled and that the penalty for non delivery of the Mistral war ships is 251 million euros... not 3 to 10 billion euros as you sometimes can read in russian propaganda. The total that Russia can claim in case of cancelation is therefore around 1 billion euros (refund and penalties included).
Besides, not delivering the Mistrals to Russia does not mean losing one billion euros as some countries seem to be interested in buying them (Canada...).
Do the maths, better cancel the Mistral deal!
Dimitri Halby, No Mistrals for Putin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.